Week 4 picks

This week is full of interesting games.  Undefeated teams meeting?  No.  Big conference matchups?  Somewhat, but not really.  Traditional rivals clashing?  Nope, none of that either.  ‘What’s so interesting then?’ you ask?  How about a pair of resurgent SCA teams Houston and Liberty trying to take down established powers Mountain Grove and Thayer?  How about some 3-0 teams like Branson, Joplin, Carl Junction, and Neosho trying to prove they’re for real?  ‘Not enough!’ you say?  OK then.  How about 5 ‘opposite end’ matchups with a 3-0 team taking on an 0-3 team?  And to top it all off, two early season ‘Futility Bowls’ with a quartet of 0-3 teams pairing up?

Hey.  I said interesting.  Not great.  Regardless, here they are fresh from the oven…

WEEK 4 PICKS

Game of the week

• Marshfield, 2-1 at Branson, 3-0
  • The Jays are 2 points away from being undefeated and owning a win over the #1 team in class 3.  They’re experienced and appear to be playing up to everyone’s expectations for them.  Conversely, Branson is exceeding expectations so far by bouncing back from a horrible 2007 season to grab good wins over Cassville, Rogersville, and Nixa to start the year off.  And even garnered some votes in the state poll this week.  Now comes the real test.  Marshfield has good balance on offence with QB Camron Keenan leading the team in rushing, but also able to get enough yards through the air to keep a defense honest.  And RB Zach Hildebrand gives them a viable second option that has to be watched.  That’s fine with Branson as they’ve done well against run first offenses this year.  Their defense is much more vulnerable through the air.  Meaning Marshfield is going to have to play some ‘D’ if they want to win.  And they certainly can as they’ve only given up 22 points through their first 3 games.  Branson’s offense is almost a carbon copy of Marshfield’s with QB Tee Helsel leading the way.  They will be short-handed tonight as RB Shae Garner appears to be out for the season with a torn ACL.  And in the trenches, both team get excellent line play with Branson being led by Mark Hill on both sides.  In short, this has the makings of a classic.
  • Keys to the game: Two things to look for.  1 – Does Branson get the early lead?  They’ve come out fast in each game so far.  I think they need to here even more.  Why?  Because I’ve seen signs of fading in the later stages of the game and Marshfield may be able to exploit that.  2 – Who gets the most done through the air?  Mainly just to keep things open for the running game.  But if either team can do some real damage in the passing game, they’ll get a huge leg up.
  • Prediction: I’m going with my gut here.  I think Marshfield weathers the early storm, maybe even gets an early strike to throw the Pirate defense off.  The Branson crowd tries to bring the Pirates back, but their defense sees the field for most minutes this year and the Jays wear them down and pound out the win.

Other Top Games

• Marionville, 2-1 at Ash Grove, 2-1
  • Marionville now finds themselves looking up in the Mid-Lakes and doesn’t want to drop a second game.  Ash Grove looks to rebound from a solid beating on the road last week.
  • Prediction: The Pirates might have been looking ahead last week.  I think they get it back together at home and win.
• Mountain Grove, 2-1 at Houston, 3-0
  • How good is the Tiger defense?  And can Evan Williams repeat his historic performance of last week?  If he comes close to even half as many yards against Houston, you should be very very impressed.
  • Prediction: The Tigers are gaining confidence, but they’re not quite ready to pull this off yet.  Panthers win.
• Pierce City, 2-1 at Liberal, 2-1
  • After playing Miller tough, Liberal wants to keep their SRVC hopes alive.  Pierce City is not accustomed to being far from the top.  They want things to stay that way.
  • Prediction: Liberal wants it more and wins at home.  Should be a great game.
• Joplin, 3-0 at Camdenton, 2-1
  • Joplin takes their scoring machine to Camden County to take on the recovered Lakers.
  • Prediction: I get the feeling Joplin is going to be on tonight.  I’ll go with the Eagles.

Games to Keep an Eye On

• McAuley, 1-2 at Greenfield, 2-1
  • The Warriors got in the win column after 2 hard luck losses.  Greenfield looks to recover from loss to Miller.
  • Prediction: Another close one for McAuley goes against them.  Greenfield.
• Lamar, 1-2 at East Newton, 2-1
  • Class 2 teams should fear Lamar.  How much may be better known after tonight.
  • Prediction: Should be a close one, but I’ll take the Patriots to defend home turf.
• Central, 2-1 at Rogersville, 1-2
  • Central hurt by loss of RB David Snell.  Will Rogersville be down after close loss to Bolivar?
  • Preciction: The Wilcats take it at home.
• Carl Junction, 3-0 at Seneca, 1-2
  • I’ve been touting Seneca.  Now they get their chance to prove me right against 3-0 CJ.
  • Prediction: The Indians are right where I had them at in my preseason picks.  I’ll stick with them to win.
• Thayer, 3-0 (#2 class 1) at Liberty, 2-1
  • Liberty gets another shot at a breakthrough game against a Bobcat team that is rollin’.
  • Prediction:  Thayer is too much.
• Nixa, 1-2 at Neosho, 3-0
  • Neosho puts their state ranking on the line for the first time against a Nixa team that can’t be overlooked.
  • Prediction: Neosho continues on their roll, but it’s close.

Rest of the Schedule

• Reeds Spring, 0-3 at Fair Grove, 3-0 (#8 class 2)
  • Looking to get their first win, the Wolves have to travel to face and Eagles team that is improving each week.
  • Prediction: Fair Grove with an easy home win.
• Parkview, 0-3 at Rolla, 3-0
  • The Viking ‘D’ hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far.  Neither has anyone playing Cameron Fore and the Bulldogs.
  • Prediction: Rolla easily wins a high scorer.
• Carthage, 3-0 (#2 class 4) at Willard, 0-3
  • Carthage trying to stay unbeaten against a Willard team that deserves better than 0-3.
  • Prediction: Trey Derryberry and Brian Poston lead the way for Carthage.
• Jasper, 0-3 at Miller, 3-0 (#4 class 1)
  • Opposite ends of the SRVC meet on Miller’s home turf.  Justin Jack has the Cardinals versatile offense clicking.
  • Prediction: Eagle fans, this probably won’t be pretty.
• Mt. Vernon, 0-3 at Monett, 3-0 (#1 class 3)
  • After a near scrimmage against Eldon, the Cubs take on Mt. Vernon who put a real scare into Carl Junction last week.
  • Prediction: Monett.  Just don’t see how Mt. Vernon can score enough to threaten here.
• Drexel, 0-3 at Lockwood, 0-3
  • Lockwood?  0-4?  Surely not.  Right?
  • Prediction: Lockwood gets off the mark and wins.
• Willow Springs, 0-3 at Cabool, 0-3
  • Both teams disappointed with their years so far.  Who can pull it together for the win?
  • Prediction: I’ll take Cabool to break through.
• Adrian, 2-1 at El Dorado Springs, 1-2
  • Can the Bulldogs score enough to reward their defense?
  • Prediction: I think so tonight.  ElDo wins.
• Osceola, 2-1 at Hughesville, 0-3
  • The Indians travel to face a Hughesville team that has given up 95 points the last two weeks.
  • Prediction: Osceola with an easy win.
• Ava, 1-2 at Salem, 2-1
  • Ava doubled their points for the year last week and still fell.  Salem looking healed from opening week trouncing.
  • Prediction: Salem rolls at home.
• Bolivar, 3-0 at Catholic, 1-2
  • The Liberators help off a tough Rogersville team last week.  Catholic has not looked sharp since week one.
  • Prediction: Bolivar gets their focus back and wins easily.
• Ozark, 1-2 at Webb City, 3-0 (#3, class 4)
  • After close loss at home last week, the Tigers get the lethal looking Cardinals.
  • Prediction: Webb is dialed in and continues to roll towards Carthage showdown.
• Pleasant Hope, 0-3 at Skyline, 2-1
  • Pirates are showing signs of life, but Skyline is a real surprise so far.
  • Prediction: Skyline continues their winning.
• Cassville, 2-1 at Aurora, 0-3
  • Take away the first quarter of the season and Cassville is 3-0 and looking great.  Aurora would still be in real trouble.
  • Prediction: The Wildcats keep improving and thump Aurora.
• Glendale, 0-3 at Lebanon, 2-1
  • Falcons seem to have lost their way.  Lebanon is looking for more home cookin’.
  • Prediction: Yellowjackets stay atop the OC.
• Hillcrest, 1-2 at Waynesville, 2-1
  • Opening loss to Helias looking better each week for Waynesville.  Opening win for Hillcrest vs West Plains less impressive.
  • Prediction: Tigers continue their strong play.
• Republic, 1-2 at Heritage, AR, 2-0
  • Republic looks to get to .500 against a Heritage team that has looked great in their first 2 games ever.
  • Prediction: Republic falls to 1-3.
• Sarcoxie, 1-2 at Diamond, 1-2
  • Both teams look to put distance between them and the bottom of the SRVC.
  • Prediction: Diamond gets to .500.
• Stockton, 0-3 at Strafford, 2-1
  • The shine is off this matchup as Stockton is having real problems scoring.
  • Prediction: Indians cruise at home.
• Kickapoo, 1-2 at West Plains, 0-3
  • After opening win against Camdenton, Kickapoo has been manhandled.  Zizzers look to get first win.
  • Prediction: I’ll take the Zizzers and Tommy Meyer to win their first.
• McDonald County, 0-3 at Harrison, AR, 2-0
  • The Mustangs get no relief facing off against a stong Goblins team.
  • Prediction: Harrison goes to 3-0.